Texas Real Estate in 2026: What the Data Actually Says (And What It Means for Your Business)
If you've been in Texas real estate for more than five minutes, you've heard the takes: "The market's crashing." "It's about to explode." "Rates will hit 4% by summer."
Let's cut through the noise. The Texas Real Estate Research Center just released their 2026 forecast, and combined with fresh data from Zillow and local MLS reports, we finally have a clear picture of what 2026 actually looks like—and how smart agents are positioning themselves.
The short version: This is a normalization year. Not a crash. Not a boom. A return to fundamentals where agent skill actually matters again.
The Numbers That Matter
Home Sales: Up 2.5%, But Uneven
TRERC forecasts 349,000 home sales statewide in 2026—a modest 2.5% increase over 2025's roughly 340,000 transactions. After the post-pandemic whiplash, this feels almost... boring.
That's actually good news. Boring is predictable. Predictable lets you plan.
But here's the catch: that 2.5% isn't spread evenly. Dallas-Fort Worth continues to outpace, while Austin's pending listings are down 10.8% year-over-year according to Team Price Real Estate's January analysis. Houston sits in an interesting middle ground—we'll get to that.
Home Prices: The 1.3% Non-Event
Statewide median home price is projected to land around $334,000 by year-end—up just 1.3% from 2025's $330,000.
Breaking that down by metro:
- DFW: 3% growth (strongest in state)
- Austin: 2% growth (finally stabilizing after the correction)
- Houston: Under 1% change
- San Antonio: 1.5% growth
For agents, this means one thing: your commission check isn't getting automatically bigger this year. If you made $10,000 on a median-priced home last year, you're making $10,130 this year—before your brokerage takes their cut.
More on that math in a minute.
Mortgage Rates: The 5-5.6% Sweet Spot
TRERC's forecast puts 30-year fixed rates between 5% and 5.6% by December 2026. That's down from the 6.24% we saw in late 2025, but don't expect a return to the 3% fantasy.
The practical impact: buyers who've been sitting on the sidelines waiting for rates to drop have gotten about as much relief as they're going to get. The "I'll wait for 4%" crowd is going to be waiting a long time.
This creates opportunity for agents who can have honest conversations about rate realities and help buyers stop timing the market.
The Metro-by-Metro Reality
Houston: The Buyer's Market Leader
Here's a stat that should get your attention: Zillow just ranked Houston #15 nationally for buyer-friendliness—and #1 among Texas metros.
Why? Three factors:
1. Inventory: ~40,000 homes on the market as of November 2025. That's massive.
2. Affordability: Mortgage payments eat just 29.7% of median household income (assuming 20% down)
3. Price stability: Zillow forecasts less than 1% change in 2026
For Houston agents, this is a double-edged sword. More inventory means more options for buyers, but it also means more competition for every listing. The days of homes selling in 48 hours with 12 offers are over.
The play: Become a listing expert. In a buyer's market, sellers need agents who can actually market—not just stick a sign in the yard and wait.
Austin: The Stabilization Story
Austin took the hardest hit in the 2023-2024 correction. Prices that seemed untouchable suddenly had three zeros knocked off. But 2026 is showing signs of equilibrium.
The concerning data point: pending listings in early January dropped 10.8% year-over-year. That's not great. But it's also January in a year where rates are still finding their floor.
Austin's fundamentals remain strong: tech employment, population growth, and the "cool factor" that makes people want to move there. The agents who'll thrive are those who can explain to nervous sellers why their home is worth $850K instead of the $1.1M their neighbor got in 2022—and still get the deal closed.
DFW: The Steady Performer
Dallas-Fort Worth continues to be the reliable workhorse of Texas real estate. TRERC projects 3% price growth—best in the state—driven by:
- Sustained corporate relocations
- Strong job market (Texas employment projected up 1.3-1.7% statewide)
- Relatively affordable compared to coastal metros
The DFW challenge is competition. According to CoStar data, this metro has more retail space under construction than Austin, Houston, and San Antonio combined. Growth attracts agents, and agent headcount has exploded.
What This Means for Your Business
Here's where I'll be direct.
In a normalizing market, the agents who keep more of their commission will have a structural advantage.
Run the numbers on a median-priced Texas home ($334,000):
- 3% commission = $10,020
- Traditional 70/30 split: You keep $7,014
- 80/20 split: You keep $8,016
- Flat-fee model ($500/transaction): You keep $9,520
That's a $2,500+ difference per transaction. Over 12 deals a year, you're looking at $30,000 that either stays in your pocket or goes to your brokerage.
In a market where price appreciation isn't going to pad your income, the money you keep matters more than ever.
The Apartment Overhang (And Why It Matters to Residential Agents)
One more data point worth watching: Texas apartment deliveries are collapsing.
In 2025, developers delivered 93,000 new apartment units. In 2026? TRERC forecasts under 35,000. That's a 62% drop.
Why this matters for residential agents: reduced apartment supply typically pushes renters toward homeownership faster. Combined with stabilizing mortgage rates and increased housing inventory, 2026 could be the year fence-sitters finally make the jump.
The agents who maintain relationships with renters in their sphere are going to see those referrals convert.
The Bottom Line
2026 isn't going to be easy, but it's not going to be 2008 either. This is a market that rewards fundamentals:
- Actually knowing your local inventory
- Being able to price listings correctly the first time
- Understanding what buyers can actually afford
- Building systems that generate leads without depending on a hot market
The agents who succeed this year will be the ones who treat real estate like a business, not a lottery ticket. That includes being strategic about where your commission dollars go.
Sources:
- Texas Real Estate Research Center, "2026 Texas Real Estate Forecast," January 15, 2026
- Zillow Research, "Best Markets for Home Buyers in 2026," January 2026
- Houston Chronicle, "Zillow names Houston Texas' most buyer-friendly market," January 27, 2026
- Team Price Real Estate, "Austin Real Estate Market Update: Early January 2026"
- CoStar Group, Texas Commercial Real Estate Data
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